# CSL YAML bibliography. See ADR-0001, ADR-0002.
references:
  - id: brier-1950
    type: article-journal
    author:
      - { family: Brier, given: Glenn W. }
    title: "Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability"
    container-title: Monthly Weather Review
    volume: 78
    issue: 1
    page: 1-3
    issued: { date-parts: [[1950]] }

  - id: murphy-1973
    type: article-journal
    author:
      - { family: Murphy, given: Allan H. }
    title: "A new vector partition of the probability score"
    container-title: Journal of Applied Meteorology
    volume: 12
    issue: 4
    page: 595-600
    issued: { date-parts: [[1973]] }

  - id: gneiting-raftery-2007
    type: article-journal
    author:
      - { family: Gneiting, given: Tilmann }
      - { family: Raftery, given: Adrian E. }
    title: "Strictly proper scoring rules, prediction, and estimation"
    container-title: Journal of the American Statistical Association
    volume: 102
    issue: 477
    page: 359-378
    issued: { date-parts: [[2007]] }

  - id: wolfers-zitzewitz-2004
    type: article-journal
    author:
      - { family: Wolfers, given: Justin }
      - { family: Zitzewitz, given: Eric }
    title: "Prediction markets"
    container-title: Journal of Economic Perspectives
    volume: 18
    issue: 2
    page: 107-126
    issued: { date-parts: [[2004]] }

  - id: tetlock-gardner-2015
    type: book
    author:
      - { family: Tetlock, given: Philip E. }
      - { family: Gardner, given: Dan }
    title: "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction"
    publisher: Crown
    publisher-place: New York
    issued: { date-parts: [[2015]] }

  - id: atol-forecasting-method-2026
    type: report
    author:
      - { literal: "ATOL Research" }
    title: "A pre-registered, market-benchmarked forecasting method (internal framework note)"
    publisher: "ATOL Research"
    issued: { date-parts: [[2026]] }

  - id: polymarket-largest-company-2026
    type: webpage
    title: "Largest Company end of December 2026"
    container-title: "Polymarket"
    URL: "https://polymarket.com/event/largest-company-end-of-december-2026"
    issued: { date-parts: [[2026, 6, 22]] }

  - id: companiesmarketcap-2026
    type: dataset
    title: "Companies ranked by market capitalization"
    publisher: companiesmarketcap.com
    URL: "https://companiesmarketcap.com"
    issued: { date-parts: [[2026]] }

  - id: wikipedia-market-cap-list-2026
    type: webpage
    title: "List of public corporations by market capitalization"
    container-title: "Wikipedia"
    URL: "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_public_corporations_by_market_capitalization"
    issued: { date-parts: [[2026]] }

  - id: cnbc-nvidia-5t-2026
    type: webpage
    title: "Nvidia stock closes at record, pushing market cap past $5 trillion"
    container-title: "CNBC"
    URL: "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/24/nvidia-stock-closes-at-record-pushing-market-cap-past-5-trillion.html"
    issued: { date-parts: [[2026, 4, 24]] }

  - id: atol-mkt-004
    type: report
    author:
      - { literal: "ATOL Research" }
    title: "Picking the joint over the marginals: a conjunction prediction engine for the 2026 World Cup"
    publisher: "ATOL Research"
    number: "MKT-004"
    issued: { date-parts: [[2026, 6, 3]] }

  - id: atol-mkt-005
    type: report
    author:
      - { literal: "ATOL Research" }
    title: "Field notes from an autonomous engineering fleet"
    publisher: "ATOL Research"
    number: "MKT-005"
    issued: { date-parts: [[2026, 6, 11]] }

  - id: atol-mkt-006
    type: report
    author:
      - { literal: "ATOL Research" }
    title: "Two roads to the same champion: a homegrown World Cup model side by side with Goldman Sachs"
    publisher: "ATOL Research"
    number: "MKT-006"
    issued: { date-parts: [[2026, 6, 12]] }